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HAZARDS IN IMPLEMENTING A MONETARY CONDITIONS INDEX
Author(s) -
Eika Kari H.,
Ericsson Neil R.,
Nymoen Ragnar
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1996.mp58004009.x
Subject(s) - economics , endogeneity , monetary policy , inflation (cosmology) , cointegration , index (typography) , econometrics , exchange rate , macroeconomics , monetary economics , physics , theoretical physics , world wide web , computer science
Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short‐term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables’ effects on longer‐term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy. An MCI assumes an underlying model relating economic activity and inflation to the variables in the MCI. Several issues arise for that model, including its empirical constancy, cointegration, exogeneity, dynamics and potential omitted variables. Because of its structure, the model is unlikely to be constant or to have strongly exogenous variables, yet constancy and exogeneity are critical for the usefulness of an MCI. Empirical analyses of Canadian, Swedish and Norwegian MCIs confirm such difficulties. Thus, the value of an MCI for conduct of economic policy is in doubt.