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SEARCHING FOR ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE U.S. POSTWAR ECONOMY
Author(s) -
Kiefer David
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
metroeconomica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.256
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 1467-999X
pISSN - 0026-1386
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-999x.1996.tb00386.x
Subject(s) - economics , business cycle , boom , convergence (economics) , econometrics , keynesian economics , stability (learning theory) , economy , mathematical economics , macroeconomics , computer science , machine learning , environmental engineering , engineering
This paper explores the possibility that booms and busts are endogenous with an econometric examination of the U.S. economy. Although existing empirical results suggest the contrary, a theoretical literature discounts the stability verdict on the grounds that it is based on linear econometric evidence which is unreliable when the underlying phenomenon is non‐linear. We study a simple Keynesian cycle model which is theoretically general enough to include convergence to equilibrium or endogenous cycles as special cases. We find one particular nonlinear econometric specification which exhibits a limit cycle when estimated on postwar data, while the estimate of its global linear approximation converges to a fixed equilibrium. Our results are an empirical investigation of the boundary between stability and instability.