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CONSUMPTION, WEALTH, STOCK AND GOVERNMENT BOND RETURNS: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE *
Author(s) -
AFONSO ANTÓNIO,
SOUSA RICARDO M.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
the manchester school
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.361
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1467-9957
pISSN - 1463-6786
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2011.02247.x
Subject(s) - economics , bond , stock (firearms) , monetary economics , consumption (sociology) , government bond , finance , social science , sociology , mechanical engineering , engineering
In this paper, we show, from the consumer's budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth and labour income should predict both stock returns and government bond yields. We use data for several OECD countries and find that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding government bond yields, when bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the yields is perceived as signalling a future rise in taxes, then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.