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THE IDENTIFICATION OF “CAREER CRIMINALS” FROM “CHRONIC OFFENDERS” IN A COHORT
Author(s) -
BLUMSTEIN ALFRED,
MOITRA SOUMYO
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
law and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.534
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1467-9930
pISSN - 0265-8240
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9930.1980.tb00219.x
Subject(s) - recidivism , criminology , cohort , psychology , identification (biology) , psychiatry , medicine , biology , botany
The findings by Wolfgang et al. that 6.3% of their cohort had 52% of the recorded police contacts is well known. This retrospective analysis has been used to suggest that imprisoning these “chronic” offenders will avert a correspondingly disproportionate amount of crime. On prospective analysis of the arrest histories, however, the recidivism probability is found to be constant after the third contact, suggesting that prior record has little predictive value regarding future criminality. These observations raise important questions about the benefits of “career criminal” programs and their incapacitative effects.