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Is the Preference for Children so Low, or is the Price of Time so High? A simultaneous model of fertility and participation in Italy with cohort effects
Author(s) -
Colombino Ugo,
Tommaso Maria Laura
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
labour
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.403
H-Index - 34
eISSN - 1467-9914
pISSN - 1121-7081
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9914.1996.tb00096.x
Subject(s) - fertility , cohort , economics , incentive , wage , cohort effect , demographic economics , preference , labour economics , demography , econometrics , microeconomics , population , statistics , sociology , mathematics
This paper presents a simultaneous model of fertility and female participation in Italy, estimated with a sequence of cross‐sections of micro data. Cohort dummies are used to capture permanent effects, including cohort changes in preferences. The cohort effects turn out to be not very significant, the point estimates suggesting a decreasing trend in participation and an increasing trend in fertility. The wage effects are instead rather strong and significant. The model produces simulations which are close to actual trends, which would seem largely explained by wage incentives. The explanation for a particularly high elasticity of fertility with respect to female wage should ultimately be searched for in the specific differences which characterize the Italian social and institutional environment.