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FORECASTING GLOBAL ICE VOLUME
Author(s) -
Newton H. Joseph,
North Gerald R.,
Crowley Thomas J.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
journal of time series analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.576
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1467-9892
pISSN - 0143-9782
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1991.tb00081.x
Subject(s) - volume (thermodynamics) , series (stratigraphy) , climatology , ice core , amplitude , mathematics , event (particle physics) , sea ice , geology , meteorology , geography , paleontology , physics , thermodynamics , quantum mechanics
. Forecasts and associated probability limits of total ice volume for the next 100 000 years are found based upon a historical record of 440 000 years of oxygen‐18 from deep sea cores. The forecasts are found using two different time series models, one based on the assumption that ice volume contains deterministic sinusoids, and one assuming that the record contains ‘disturbed periodicities’, i.e. the sinusoids do not have the same cycle length and amplitude from one cycle to another. The results for the two models are seen to be very similar, with both predicting a small probability for a future ice volume event to be as large as the last ice age, which was one of the largest glaciations of the last 2 million years.