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ALARM CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM WITH DETERMINISTIC COMPONENTS
Author(s) -
Beckman StigInge,
Holst Jan,
Lindgren Georg
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
journal of time series analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.576
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1467-9892
pISSN - 0143-9782
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1990.tb00038.x
Subject(s) - alarm , warning system , flood myth , false alarm , component (thermodynamics) , flood warning , mathematics , statistics , early warning system , data mining , computer science , reliability engineering , real time computing , engineering , geography , telecommunications , physics , archaeology , thermodynamics , aerospace engineering
. A method for evaluating a predictor‐based alarm system is studied in this paper. The predictor is composed of a ‘deterministic’ component reflecting external information and a statistically based component for the error between the measurements and the external predictor. The aim of the predictor study is twofold:it is a means of interpreting the connections between the alarm and the catastrophe, and it can be used to select suitable alarm levels. As an application, the performance of a water‐level predictor as part of a flood warning system has been evaluated. The result of this analysis shows that an alarm system which operates when the predictor reaches a certain level will tend to give either too many alarms or alarms that are out of phase with the catastrophe.