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A statistical model for natural gas standardized load profiles
Author(s) -
Brabec Marek,
Konár Ondřej,
Malý Marek,
Pelikán Emil,
Vondráček Jiří
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series c (applied statistics)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.205
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1467-9876
pISSN - 0035-9254
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00636.x
Subject(s) - multiplicative function , parametric statistics , consumption (sociology) , constant (computer programming) , regression analysis , extension (predicate logic) , econometrics , statistical model , computer science , parametric model , statistics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , social science , sociology , programming language
Summary. We present a statistical model for construction and application of standardized load profiles. Standardized load profile curves give a typical natural gas consumption pattern throughout a year in various time resolutions. Our semiparametric regression model uses three types of information, constant characteristics of an individual customer, individual historical consumption and time varying explanatory variables, both to describe typical trend and to correct for departure of current conditions from normal. The model's multiplicative structure allows for convenient separation of individual‐specific and common time varying parts. Although corrections are parametric, no substantial information about the typical consumption trend is available, so it is modelled non‐parametrically. Corrections for temperature effects are non‐linear; hence we deal with them through an obvious extension of the generalized additive model framework.