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Victorian probability and Lewis Carroll
Author(s) -
Seneta Eugene
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00718.x
Subject(s) - ignorance , inverse probability , frequentist probability , probabilistic logic , probability model , posterior probability , mathematical economics , epistemology , mathematics , bayesian probability , philosophy , statistics
Summary. In the controversial application of inverse probability reasoning, the prior probability of a hypothesis or cause is modified on the basis of an experimental observation to a posterior probability. A contentious issue is the probabilistic expression of prior belief, especially of prior ignorance, which impinges on the nature of probability. The probability work of Todhunter, Crofton and Cook Wilson spans the period from 1876, the expressed beginning of C. L. Dodgson's interest in this issue, to 1893 when Lewis Carroll's Pillow Problems appeared. The present study amplifies the connections and broadens the study of Victorian probability in its social milieu by bringing to light less‐studied sources.