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Rating teams and analysing outcomes in one‐day and test cricket
Author(s) -
Allsopp P. E.,
Clarke Stephen R.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-985x.2004.00505.x
Subject(s) - cricket , test (biology) , multinomial logistic regression , outcome (game theory) , statistics , psychology , operations management , computer science , engineering , mathematics , ecology , paleontology , mathematical economics , biology
Summary. Multiple linear regression techniques are applied to determine the relative batting and bowling strengths and a common home advantage for teams playing both innings of international one‐day cricket and the first innings of a test‐match. It is established that in both forms of the game Australia and South Africa were rated substantially above the other teams. It is also shown that home teams generally enjoyed a significant advantage. Using the relative batting and bowling strengths of teams, together with parameters that are associated with common home advantage, winning the toss and the establishment of a first‐innings lead, multinomial logistic regression techniques are applied to explore further how these factors critically affect outcomes of test‐matches. It is established that in test cricket a team's first‐innings batting and bowling strength, first‐innings lead, batting order and home advantage are strong predictors of a winning match outcome. Contrary to popular opinion, it is found that the team batting second in a test enjoys a significant advantage. Notably, the relative superiority of teams during the fourth innings of a test‐match, but not the third innings, is a strong predictor of a winning outcome. There is no evidence to suggest that teams generally gained a winning advantage as a result of winning the toss.