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The survival of newly founded firms: a case‐study into varying‐coefficient models
Author(s) -
Kauermann Göran,
Tutz Gerhard,
Brüderl Josef
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-985x.2004.00341.x
Subject(s) - akaike information criterion , constant (computer programming) , actuarial science , variation (astronomy) , economics , financial risk , econometrics , business , statistics , mathematics , computer science , physics , astrophysics , programming language
Summary. The success of a newly founded firm depends on various initial risk factors or start‐up conditions such as the market that the business is aiming for, the experience and the age of the founder, the preparation before the launch, the financial frame and the legal form of the firm. These risk factors determine the chance of survival for the venture. However, the effects of these risk factors may change with time. Some effects may vanish whereas others remain constant. We analyse the survival of 1123 newly founded firms in the state of Bavaria, Germany. Our focus is on the investigation of time variation in the effects of risk factors. Time variation is tackled within the framework of varying‐coefficient models, where time smoothly modifies the effects of risk factors. An important issue in our analysis is the separation of risk factors which have time‐varying effects from those which have time constant effects. We make use of the Akaike criterion to separate these two types of risk factor.