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A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING QUARTERLY LOCAL‐AREA PERSONAL INCOME *
Author(s) -
Conte Michael A.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
journal of regional science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.171
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1467-9787
pISSN - 0022-4146
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1989.tb01224.x
Subject(s) - metropolitan area , personal income , econometrics , estimation , aggregate (composite) , aggregate data , econometric model , economics , statistics , mathematics , geography , economic growth , materials science , management , archaeology , composite material
A single‐equation econometric approach is developed for estimating personal income on a quarterly basis for counties and county aggregates (e.g., metropolitan areas). An experiment is conducted on state data to test the accuracy of the estimates. The experiment indicates that they would be highly accurate for large local areas; for local areas comprising at least 20 percent of their state's total personal income, the estimates would fall within 2 percent of BEA‐type estimates 95 percent of the time. An aggregate estimation approach is shown to be preferable to a component approach. Using data on local department store sales, the quarterly personal income estimates are shown to forecast better than the currently available annual estimates.