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The GCC’s Fixed Exchange Rate: A Major Anomaly for OCA Analysis
Author(s) -
Willett Thomas D.,
AlBarwani Khalfan M.,
El Hag Sherine M.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
the world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01301.x
Subject(s) - economics , currency , revenue , exchange rate , international economics , anomaly (physics) , exchange rate regime , foreign exchange market , monetary economics , macroeconomics , finance , physics , condensed matter physics
From the standpoint of traditional optimal currency area (OCA) analysis, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are a major anomaly. They successfully maintained pegged exchange rates among themselves for two decades while failing to meet a number of major OCA criteria. Contrary to the optimistic predictions of some of the most enthusiastic advocates of endogenous OCA analysis, intra‐regional trade has remained low and there is little synchronisation of their business cycles or harmonisation of their fiscal positions. We argue that their success in operating a fixed rate regime has been due to a combination of high oil revenue, the heavy use of foreign workers and the limited extent to which their economies rely on market forces. These are conditions that are not met by most other countries.