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On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence
Author(s) -
AbuQarn Aamer S.,
AbuBader Suleiman
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01096.x
Subject(s) - economics , supply shock , business cycle , demand shock , monetary economics , monetary policy , european monetary union , economic and monetary union , macroeconomics , international economics , european union
The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.