Can Developing‐country Exports Keep Growing in the 1980s?

This paper reports on the initial findings of the program of studies on the impact of developing-country exports of manufactures on the market of the principal industrial countries. A discussion of the liberal-protectionist balance leads to the conclusion that, while quantitative assessments have been made of the decrease of protection through tariff reductions in the 1970's, it has not been possible to measure the increases in protection resulting from various other measures. It seems that the resurgence of non-tariff protectionism in the 1970s has not destroyed the liberal gains of earlier decades. Analysis of market penetration suggests the industrial countries' market for LDC manufactures is large and still growing. It appears that the liberal-protectionist balance in the 1980s will be critical, particularly for lower income and less successful developing countries. Policies to make liberal attitudes to trade dominant are suggested.