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Estimating Small‐Area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods
Author(s) -
Cai Qiang,
Rushton Gerard,
Bhaduri Budhendra,
Bright Edward,
Coleman Phillip
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
transactions in gis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.721
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1467-9671
pISSN - 1361-1682
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9671.2006.01013.x
Subject(s) - census , population , statistics , kriging , geography , census tract , weighting , interpolation (computer graphics) , multivariate interpolation , confidence interval , population size , demography , spatial analysis , cartography , mathematics , computer science , medicine , animation , computer graphics (images) , sociology , bilinear interpolation , radiology
The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age‐sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age‐sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age‐sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age‐sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup‐count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom‐defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.