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Patterns on an ancient artifact: a coincidence?
Author(s) -
ten Cate Arie
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
statistica neerlandica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.52
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1467-9574
pISSN - 0039-0402
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2010.00478.x
Subject(s) - artifact (error) , spiral (railway) , coincidence , monte carlo method , series (stratigraphy) , statistical physics , computer science , mathematics , artificial intelligence , statistics , physics , mathematical analysis , geology , paleontology , medicine , alternative medicine , pathology
The Phaistos Disk is an ancient artifact from Crete. At each side of the disk, a series of unknown signs is written along a spiral. Professional archaeologists expect that we will only learn what it is until similar objects are found. A statistical analysis in this article shows what it is not: it is not a one‐dimensional text, since there are relations between the signs in adjacent windings of the spiral. Three patterns of such relations have been identified. A Monte Carlo simulation of one of them has been performed, using a model of the spiral form. It is concluded that the probability of this pattern being coincidental is small, well below the conventional threshold.