Prison or Voluntary Cooperation? The Possibility of Withdrawal from the European Union

Can a Member State choose to leave the European Union (EU)? Are there provisions in the Treaties that establish a right to withdraw? What would the political and economic implications be? In this article, these questions are addressed. In a first step, the Treaties of the EU and the provisions of international law are consulted in order to clarify if a legal right to withdraw exists. The conclusion is that there is no guaranteed legal right to withdraw in the current situation, but the entering into force of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe would create such a right. However, a formal right to withdraw does not necessarily mean that leaving the EU is a real option, and therefore the political and economic sides of the issue are also examined. From the literature on secession and Europeanization, a number of issues that could arise in a case of withdrawal are identified – namely ‘fear of fragmentation’, ‘lost investment’, ‘costs’ and ‘the effects of Europeanization’. The extent to which these issues were of importance is examined in the only existing case of withdrawal: Greenland. Subsequently, an assessment is made of the extent to which these issues could form obstacles for a Member State that wishes to withdraw in the current situation. The main conclusion is that large economic costs and the constitutional changes that follow from EU membership could rule out withdrawal as a realistic option.