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Studies in subjective probability II: Dilemmas of chance
Author(s) -
TEIGEN KARL HALVOR
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
scandinavian journal of psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.743
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1467-9450
pISSN - 0036-5564
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00472.x
Subject(s) - psychology , interval (graph theory) , outcome (game theory) , value (mathematics) , sequence (biology) , social psychology , point (geometry) , cognitive psychology , statistics , mathematical economics , mathematics , combinatorics , geometry , biology , genetics
The study examines guessing patterns in situations where outcomes have an unequal probability of occurring. It is shown that people will not always predict the most probable outcome if this is an extreme, “unrepresentative” value (Experiments I and II). It is also demonstrated that predictions are influenced by which questions are asked (for instance, if a point prediction or an interval prediction is called for). Thus a sequence of questions can lead to incorrect (suboptimal) predictions, even if each answer is perfectly logical in itself. In this case, most subjects prefer to be consistent rather than being “rational”, making the final prediction dependent upon the order in which decisions are made (Experiments III‐V).