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Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States *
Author(s) -
Ravn Morten O.,
Simonelli Saverio
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
the scandinavian journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.725
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1467-9442
pISSN - 0347-0520
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2007.00520.x
Subject(s) - business cycle , economics , shock (circulatory) , volatility (finance) , technology shock , demand shock , supply shock , monetary policy , monetary economics , econometrics , macroeconomics , dynamic stochastic general equilibrium , medicine
We use a 12‐dimensional VAR to examine the aggregate effects of two structural technology shocks and two policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labor market, the importance of the shock for labor market volatility, and the comovement between labor market variables and other key aggregate variables in response to the shock. We document that labor market indicators display “hump‐shaped” responses to the identified shocks. Technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important for labor market volatility but the ranking of their importance is sensitive to the VAR specification. The conditional correlations at business cycle frequencies are similar in response to the four shocks, apart from the correlations between hours worked, labor productivity and real wages. To account for the unconditional correlations between these variables, a mixture of shocks is required.