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Financial Instability under a Flexible Exchange Rate *
Author(s) -
Besancenot Damien,
Vranceanu Radu
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
scandinavian journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.725
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1467-9442
pISSN - 0347-0520
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2007.00498.x
Subject(s) - economics , debt , monetary economics , liberian dollar , exchange rate flexibility , flexibility (engineering) , exchange rate , insolvency , external debt , financial economics , finance , exchange rate regime , management
Many governments in developing countries contemplate the possibility of increasing the flexibility of their exchange rates despite having accumulated substantial dollar‐denominated debt. Using a model of corporate dollar debt in which the future exchange rate is uncertain, this paper studies the financial risks that might arise as a consequence of increased exchange rate flexibility. Since a firm may default on its debt either because its dollar income is too low or because investors refuse to roll over its debt, the measure of the overall risk of default should take into account both factors, as well as their interaction. Solving the model for the no‐default rational expectations equilibrium, we find that a small risk of insolvency may bring about a substantial risk of illiquidity.