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Decoupled Farm Payments and Expectations for Base Updating
Author(s) -
Coble Keith H.,
Miller J. Corey,
Darren Hudson M.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9353.2007.00390.x
Subject(s) - anticipation (artificial intelligence) , payment , incentive , production (economics) , yield (engineering) , economics , base (topology) , business , microeconomics , finance , computer science , mathematics , mathematical analysis , materials science , artificial intelligence , metallurgy
The degree to which U.S. farm programs are decoupled from production has been a central issue in recent trade disputes. Several authors have suggested producer expectations for base acreage and yield updating in future farm bills create an incentive to alter planting and input decisions. This article reports analysis of the subjective expectations of producers for base updating and an analysis of the effect these expectations have on producer willingness to accept a buyout of the right to update. On average, producers think the chances of updating in the next farm bill are about 40%, but less than 17% indicate adjusting acreage or yields in anticipation of updating.