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Nonlinear Effects of Weather on Corn Yields
Author(s) -
Schlenker Wolfram,
Roberts Michael J.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9353.2006.00304.x
Subject(s) - environmental science , nonlinear system , weather modification , agricultural economics , economics , agricultural engineering , meteorology , agronomy , geography , engineering , biology , physics , quantum mechanics
This paper examines the reduced-form relationship between weather and yields using a unique data set of maize yields and daily weather records covering the eastern USA for 1950-2004. Since weather variations in a fixed location are exogenous and random, the reduced-form relationship constitutes a viable natural experiment and is therefore clearly identified. The study finds a significant nonlinear relationship between temperature and maize yields that is roughly in line with the concept of degree days: yields increase with temperature at moderate temperatures (between 12°C and 25°C), but rapidly become negative at temperatures in excess of 30°C.