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Fuzzy operational approach to analysis of Delphi forecasting
Author(s) -
Eto Hajime
Publication year - 1978
Publication title -
randd management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.253
H-Index - 102
eISSN - 1467-9310
pISSN - 0033-6807
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9310.1978.tb01109.x
Subject(s) - delphi , delphi method , exploit , computer science , operations research , range (aeronautics) , process (computing) , fuzzy logic , technology forecasting , management science , function (biology) , artificial intelligence , mathematics , economics , engineering , computer security , evolutionary biology , biology , aerospace engineering , operating system
Delphi forecasting exploits the intuitive side of judgment, but there has been little attempt to analyse Delphi opinions quantitatively as a result of, among other things, severe methodological obstacles. Fuzzy theory provides a possible approach, and here is used to examine the relationship between experts’ views on the degree of importance and year of the breakthrough they are forecasting. The underlying model assumes that the experts also estimate the possibility and range of advancing the year of breakthrough, given that important potential breakthroughs will have more resources diverted to them, and that this will affect the estimated dates (although the experts may not necessarily be aware that they are doing this). Graphical and analytical representations of this process are described which derive an estimate of the technological feasibility of the breakthrough as a function of time, from successive rounds of estimates of importance and year of breakthrough.