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Signals of the future? Towards the establishment of a forecasting standard using signal detection theory
Author(s) -
Lester G.,
Rothman H.
Publication year - 1977
Publication title -
randd management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.253
H-Index - 102
eISSN - 1467-9310
pISSN - 0033-6807
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9310.1977.tb00120.x
Subject(s) - analogy , matching (statistics) , signal (programming language) , sensitivity (control systems) , computer science , basis (linear algebra) , field (mathematics) , measure (data warehouse) , detection theory , artificial intelligence , machine learning , econometrics , data mining , mathematics , statistics , engineering , telecommunications , electronic engineering , epistemology , philosophy , geometry , detector , pure mathematics , programming language
The paper is an attempt to provide a basis for comparing forecasts from different sources and of different types. Heavy use of an analogy with classic signal theory and methods is made. A measure of a forecaster's sensitivity is developed, as is the possibility of matching this to the implementer's circumstances. An exemplar from the field of food and agriculture is demonstrated.