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Measurement of bias in project durations
Author(s) -
Kidd J. B.
Publication year - 1975
Publication title -
randd management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.253
H-Index - 102
eISSN - 1467-9310
pISSN - 0033-6807
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9310.1975.tb01081.x
Subject(s) - statement (logic) , quality (philosophy) , sample (material) , computer science , incentive , statistics , scoring rule , econometrics , operations research , mathematics , economics , philosophy , chemistry , epistemology , chromatography , political science , law , microeconomics
A note by Milliken (1973) suggests the usage of programme trend charts will help managers estimate the total duration of the project slippage. Whilst his sample graphs are informative they are of little use in evaluating two aspects of the problem: (a) The uncertainty inherent in the project–known to the Shop Floor, but unknown to the management. (b) The expected completion date–until sufficient data has been collected to yield reliable regression extrapolations. It is postulated that the assessment of suitably encoded subjective probability distributions be used to satisfy points (a) and (b) above. These distributions, when evaluated by a scoring rule, will also give the management, and the assessor, a true statement of the quality of the assessments. Furthermore, the underlying theory of subjective probability scoring rules suggests that assessors should become ‘better’ when being scored than when given no incentive, other than the usual behavioural guidance of most hierarchic organizations.