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The quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D
Author(s) -
Schröder HansHorst
Publication year - 1975
Publication title -
randd management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.253
H-Index - 102
eISSN - 1467-9310
pISSN - 0033-6807
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9310.1975.tb01078.x
Subject(s) - quality (philosophy) , outcome (game theory) , actuarial science , statistics , econometrics , psychology , computer science , mathematics , economics , mathematical economics , philosophy , epistemology
Employing various measures for the quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D a detailed analysis of 4 data sets taken from different R & D organizations shows that the probability assessments roughly specify the populations to which R & D projects belong, but are extremely unreliable indicators of the eventual outcome of individual activities. Unintentional errors and conscious biases are identified as accounting for the unsatisfactory quality of subjective probabilities in R & D. Finally, some measures are suggested which might improve the quality of the probability assessments.