The Iraq War and the World Oil Economy

The invasion of Iraq has proved a disaster, one that was clearly foreseen. None of the reasons advanced for the action have turned out to be plausible, yet the administration evidently decided on this expensive and dangerous course early on. There are two stages in coming to terms with this: first to grasp what is at stake, second to understand the rationale for a military approach. We are not concerned with the second here. Our contention is that the first is far more complex and very possibly far more important than has generally been acknowledged in public discussion. Nothing less than the future management and control of the world energy market is at stake. It is not about who owns the oil; it is about who controls the market. In the transition from soon to be exhausted, non-renewable sources of energy, such as oil and gas, to alternative and renewable ones, the Middle East will play a crucial role. As a result it has become and will remain a major focus of conflict and diplomacy. We may all hope that conservation and alternative energy will eventually free the world from dependency on oil, but until that happens, the Middle East will be the central source. Yet, this, as we will argue in our final section, also opens up a new perspective for the Middle East.