Premium
Fuzzy Modeling Approach for Combined Forecasting of Urban Traffic Flow
Author(s) -
Stathopoulos Antony,
Dimitriou Loukas,
Tsekeris Theodore
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
computer‐aided civil and infrastructure engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.773
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1467-8667
pISSN - 1093-9687
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8667.2008.00558.x
Subject(s) - computer science , traffic flow (computer networking) , artificial neural network , kalman filter , fuzzy logic , data mining , set (abstract data type) , artificial intelligence , intelligent transportation system , machine learning , engineering , transport engineering , computer security , programming language
This article addresses the problem of the accuracy of short‐term traffic flow forecasting in the complex case of urban signalized arterial networks. A new, artificial intelligence (AI)‐based approach is suggested for improving the accuracy of traffic predictions through suitably combining the forecasts derived from a set of individual predictors. This approach employs a fuzzy rule‐based system (FRBS), which is augmented with an appropriate metaheuristic (direct search) technique to automate the tuning of the system parameters within an online adaptive rolling horizon framework. The proposed hybrid FRBS is used to nonlinearly combine traffic flow forecasts resulting from an online adaptive Kalman filter (KF) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The empirical results obtained from the model implementation into a real‐world urban signalized arterial demonstrate the ability of the proposed approach to considerably overperform the given individual traffic predictors .