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AN EXAMPLE OF AN OPTIMAL FORECAST EXHIBITING DECREASING BIAS WITH INCREASING FORECAST HORIZON
Author(s) -
Aretz Kevin,
Peel David A.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
bulletin of economic research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.227
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 1467-8586
pISSN - 0307-3378
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2010.00383.x
Subject(s) - horizon , inflation (cosmology) , econometrics , economics , function (biology) , quadratic equation , mathematics , statistics , physics , biology , geometry , evolutionary biology , theoretical physics
Motivated by a central banker with an inflation target, we show that the optimal forecast bias under non‐quadratic loss functions and non‐normal forecast errors can decrease or initially increase and then decrease with the forecast horizon. We initially proof that, if the variable to forecast can be described by a generalized Rayleigh distribution, its conditional mean does in general not constitute the optimal prediction under a symmetric target zone loss function. Subsequently, we approximate the target zone loss function to show the potential for variation in optimal bias over the forecast horizon.