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The Use of Predictive Modelling in Impact Assessment: Implications for Environmental Legislation and Regulation
Author(s) -
Duncan Ronlyn
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
australian journal of public administration
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.524
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-8500
pISSN - 0313-6647
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8500.2006.00473a.x
Subject(s) - legislation , predictive power , legitimation , environmental impact assessment , environmental planning , tracing , identification (biology) , electricity , invocation , environmental resource management , business , economics , political science , environmental science , computer science , engineering , law , ecology , politics , philosophy , electrical engineering , epistemology , operating system , biology
Predictive modelling is now an indispensable tool in the identification of social, economic and environmental impacts and risks. This article appraises its use in the assessment of environmental impacts on the Gordon River of Basslink, the Bass Strait power cable that will plug Tasmania into the National Electricity Market. This study follows a proponent's knowledge claims derived from predictive modelling from their origin in researchers' reports to their legitimation as regulatory outcomes. By tracing two modelling comparisons, it will be shown that conclusions on the extent of environmental impacts on the Gordon River changed during the impact assessment process from being considered significant to insignificant and, consequently, how an invocation of environmental regulatory legislation was avoided.