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Modelling hydroclimatic uncertainty and short‐run irrigator decision making: the Goulburn system *
Author(s) -
Griffith Marnie,
Codner Gary,
Weinmann Erwin,
Schreider Sergei
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural and resource economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 1364-985X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2009.00465.x
Subject(s) - irrigation , water resource management , environmental science , stochastic programming , irrigation district , water resources , hydrology (agriculture) , mathematics , engineering , mathematical optimization , ecology , geotechnical engineering , biology
Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability (‘allocations’) and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water‐scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market.