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Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation *
Author(s) -
Connor Jeff,
Schwabe Kurt,
King Darran,
Kaczan David,
Kirby Mac
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural and resource economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 1364-985X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2009.00460.x
Subject(s) - climate change , irrigation , environmental science , agriculture , water balance , water resource management , profitability index , water use , natural resource economics , economics , geography , agronomy , ecology , engineering , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , finance , biology
This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4°C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two‐stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long‐run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.