Premium
RISK ATTITUDE, PLANTING CONDITIONS AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS TO A DRYLAND WHEAT GROWER *
Author(s) -
Marshall Graham R.,
Parton Kevin A.,
Hammer G.L.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 0004-9395
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8489.1996.tb00595.x
Subject(s) - sowing , value (mathematics) , growing season , southern oscillation , mathematics , climate pattern , winter wheat , environmental science , agricultural economics , agronomy , agricultural engineering , economics , econometrics , agricultural science , el niño southern oscillation , geography , meteorology , statistics , climatology , engineering , biology , precipitation , geology
The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility‐maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894‐1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non‐use.