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COMPARATIVE FORECAST ACCURACY IN THE NEW SOUTH WALES PRIME LAMB MARKET
Author(s) -
Vere David T.,
Griffith Garry R.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 0004-9395
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8489.1990.tb00696.x
Subject(s) - prime (order theory) , supply and demand , scope (computer science) , production (economics) , range (aeronautics) , econometrics , economics , business , microeconomics , computer science , engineering , mathematics , combinatorics , programming language , aerospace engineering
The market for Australian prime lamb is characterised by high production seasonality and a highly competitive retail demand. Because these factors often translate into substantial market variability, regular forecasts of supply and demand are important requirements of lamb market participants. There has been some forecasting activity in the state and national lamb markets but it has been a somewhat controversial activity. This paper assesses the comparative forecast accuracy of a range of methods in the New South Wales lamb market. The results indicate that no single method is clearly superior in all situations and the greatest scope for improving forecast accuracy in the New South Wales lamb market is through the use of combined econometric and naive approaches.