Premium
CHANCE AND CHOICE WEST OF THE DARLING
Author(s) -
Francisco Emilio M.,
Anderson Jock R.
Publication year - 1972
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 0004-9395
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8489.1972.tb00092.x
Subject(s) - pastoralism , bayes' theorem , probabilistic logic , econometrics , geography , mathematics , computer science , statistics , livestock , bayesian probability , forestry
Twenty‐one pastoralists in the West Darling region of New South Wales were interviewed to gain an understanding of the attitudes of managers in this high‐risk pastoral area to uncertain prospects. It was found that pastoralists had no difficulty in specifying subjective probabilities but in modifying probabilistic information they were conservative relative to the 'correct' revision implied by Bayes' Theorem. All the surveyed pastoralists were non‐indifferent to risk, as evidenced by their non‐linear utility functions for gains and losses.