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Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?
Author(s) -
Pierdzioch Christian,
Rülke JanChristoph,
Stadtmann Georg
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
australian economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.308
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 1467-8462
pISSN - 0004-9018
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00676.x
Subject(s) - herding , herd , herd behavior , economics , financial economics , consensus forecast , econometrics , geography , biology , zoology , forestry
Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti‐herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti‐herding seems to vary over time. We also found that more pronounced anti‐herding leads to less accurate forecasts.