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The Australian Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity
Author(s) -
Alles Lakshman
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
australian economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.308
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 1467-8462
pISSN - 0004-9018
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00905.x
Subject(s) - explanatory power , term (time) , economics , econometrics , predictive power , real gross domestic product , index (typography) , variance (accounting) , yield curve , macroeconomics , interest rate , computer science , accounting , epistemology , quantum mechanics , world wide web , philosophy , physics
This study examines the empirical relation between the yield spread of the term structure of interest rates and future economic activity in Australia. Results indicate that the term spread has significant power to predict real GDP growth but not nominal GDP growth. The term spread has more power in forecasting cumulative future growth than marginal growth in periods ahead. Around one‐third of the variance of two year GDP growth can be explained by the term structure one to two quarters ahead. Explanatory power begins to decline beyond two to three years into the future whatever the combination of the long and short term yields used to measure the spread. The term spread has more explanatory power than the most widely used leading index for forecasting economic activity when forecasting cumulative GDP growth beyond two quarters.