Open AccessModelling the impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia
Author(s) -
Gidding Heather F.,
Brisson Marc,
Macintyre C. Raina,
Burgess Margaret A.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
australian and new zealand journal of public health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.946
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1753-6405
pISSN - 1326-0200
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.2005.tb00248.x
Subject(s) - vaccination , medicine , incidence (geometry) , varicella zoster virus , epidemiology , pediatrics , chickenpox vaccine , population , chickenpox , demography , immunology , virus , environmental health , varicella vaccine , immunization , immune system , physics , sociology , optics
Objective: To model the impact of universal varicella vaccination in Australia. Methods: The results of an Australia‐wide serosurvey for varicella zoster virus (VZV) immunity were used to parameterise realistic, age‐structured deterministic models (RAS) developed by Brisson and colleagues. We examined the impact of a vaccination program for one‐year‐olds alone, and with a catch‐up campaign for 11 ‐year‐olds, on the incidence of varicella and zoster, using Australia's population structure. Morbidity was then determined by calculating the number of hospital in‐patient days. Results: Infant vaccination is predicted to reduce the incidence of varicella. However, zoster incidence is expected to increase initially, assuming exposure to varicella boosts immunity to zoster. Accumulated morbidity from both varicella and zoster is predicted to remain above that expected without vaccination for the first 70 years of an infant program (assuming 90% coverage with boosting for 20 years). However, after 70 years the net health savings from vaccination are predicted to increase substantially. Conclusions and Implications: Infant vaccination is expected to be a successful long‐term commitment to reducing morbidity associated with VZV infection in Australia.