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ESTIMATING PROCESSES OF COUNTS FROM CROSS‐SECTIONAL AGGREGATE DATA, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MULTISTATE LIFE TABLES AND HEALTH EXPECTANCIES
Author(s) -
Heathcote Christopher R.,
Puza Borek D.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
australian and new zealand journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 1369-1473
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.2005.00406.x
Subject(s) - life expectancy , aggregate (composite) , estimation , logistic regression , statistics , cross sectional study , aggregate data , demography , mathematics , econometrics , gerontology , medicine , environmental health , engineering , population , materials science , sociology , composite material , systems engineering
Summary This paper discusses the estimation of time‐dependent probabilities of a finite state‐space discrete‐time process using aggregate cross‐sectional data. A large‐sample version of multistate logistic regression is described and shown to be useful for analysing multistate life tables. The technique is applied to the estimation of disability‐free, severely disabled and other disabled survival curves and health expectancies in Australia, based on data from national health surveys in 1988, 1993 and 1998. A conclusion is that there has been a general upward trend in the future time expected to be spent in a state of disability, the picture being more pessimistic for males than females. For example, during 1988‐1998 the estimated increase in male life expectancy at birth of 2.7 years is decomposed as a decrease of 1.2 years in disability‐free health (life) expectancy and increases of 1.3 and 2.6 years, respectively, in states of severe disability and other disability.