Open AccessDoes capture‐recapture analysis provide more reliable estimates of the incidence and prevalence of leg ulcers in the community?
Author(s) -
Walker Natalie K.,
Vandal Alain C.,
Holden Jennifer K.,
Rodgers Anthony,
Birchall Nicholas,
Norton Robyn,
Triggs Christopher M.,
MacMahon Stephen
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
australian and new zealand journal of public health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.946
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1753-6405
pISSN - 1326-0200
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.2002.tb00346.x
Subject(s) - mark and recapture , incidence (geometry) , medicine , environmental health , demography , population , mathematics , sociology , geometry
Objective : To deter mine whether capture‐recapture analysis provides more reliable estimates of the cumulative incidence and prevalence of leg ulcers in Auckland, New Zealand. Methods : A population‐based, cross‐sectional study was conducted in the Central and North Auckland health districts of New Zealand in 1998. Cases were identified through health professional referral and by self‐notification. All ages and ulcer types were investigated. Both traditional and capture‐recapture methods of analysis were used to estimate the cumulative incidence and prevalence of leg ulcers in the study population. Results : Four hundred and twenty‐six people with current leg ulcers were identified during the 12‐month study period. Using traditional methods of analysis, the annual cumulative incidence rate of leg ulcers in Auckland was 32 per 100,000, with a point prevalence of 39 per 100,000 and a period prevalence of 79 per 100,000 per year. Results from capture‐recapture analysis, however, suggest an annual cumulative incidence rate of 252 per 100,000, with a point prevalence of 248 per 100,000 and a period prevalence of 530 per 100,000 per year. Conclusions : The traditional method of calculating cumulative incidence and prevalence clearly under‐estimates the frequency of leg ulcers in the Auckland region. Capture‐recapture analysis provides a more reliable estimate of disease frequency, since cases that remain unidentified in the population are considered.