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ANALYSIS OF DOUBLY CENSORED DATA AND THE HIV INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Author(s) -
James Ian R.,
Hogan Stephen J.,
Mallal Simon A.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
australian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 0004-9581
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.1995.tb00661.x
Subject(s) - seroconversion , weibull distribution , incubation period , statistics , multicenter aids cohort study , window period , cohort , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , demography , mathematics , medicine , incubation , virology , psychology , immunology , viral disease , sida , antibody , sociology , serology , psychotherapist
Summary The paper analyses the distribution of times from HIV seroconversion to the first AIDS defining illness for a subcohort of the Western Australian HIV Cohort Study for whom the seroconversion date is known to fall within a calendar time window. The analysis is based on a generalised gamma model for the incubation times and a piecewise constant distribution for the conditional times of seroconversion given the seroconversion windows. This allows flexible hazard shapes and also allows comparison of goodness of fit of the gamma and Weibull distributions which are often used for modelling incubation times. Computational issues are discussed. In these data, neither age at seroconversion, nor calendar time of seroconversion, nor the identification of a seroconversion illness appears to afFect incubation distributions. The Weibull distribution appears to provide a reasonable fit. The distribution of times from seroconversion to an HIV‐related death is also briefly considered.