Premium
RANDOMISATION AND THE 1975 SENATE BALLOT DRAW
Author(s) -
CLARK R.M.,
HARCOURT A.G.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
australian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 0004-9581
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.1991.tb00433.x
Subject(s) - ballot , randomness , secret ballot , order (exchange) , political science , outcome (game theory) , voting , computer science , law , law and economics , mathematical economics , sociology , statistics , economics , mathematics , politics , finance
Summary “So the last shall be first, and the first last; for many be called, but few chosen.” Matthew 20:16 The “random” draw for positions on the Senate ballot papers in the 1975 election resulted in an apparently non‐random ordering, to the possible advantage of one particular party. This paper assesses the statistical significance of the 1975 draw and looks at possible causes of the evident non‐randomness. A simplified yet realistic mathematical model is used to describe conditions under which the so‐called donkey vote can have an effect on the final outcome of the election, thereby confirming the widely‐held belief that the order of parties on the Senate ballot paper is relevant. We examine other Senate elections between 1949 and 1983 for the existence of relevant non‐randomness similar to the 1975 result. Finally, we report briefly on our submission to the 1983 Joint Select Committee on Electoral Reform, which led to an improvement in the randomisation procedure.