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HETEROGENEITY AMONG SUSCEPTIBLES IN EPIDEMIC MODELS
Author(s) -
Marschner Ian C.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
australian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 0004-9581
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.1991.tb00427.x
Subject(s) - martingale (probability theory) , econometrics , outbreak , epidemic model , population , statistics , smallpox , mathematics , geography , demography , virology , medicine , vaccination , sociology
Summary When the infection rate associated with an epidemic appears to decline over time, one explanation is a constant level of infectiousness combined with heterogeneity among the susceptible population. In this paper we consider random effects models for such heterogeneity, particularly in discrete time. Maximum likelihood techniques are discussed as well as a more convenient approach based on martingale estimating equations. An application to data on a smallpox outbreak is considered.