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ON THE SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
Author(s) -
Alvo Mayer,
Cabilio Paul
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
australian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 0004-9581
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.1979.tb01120.x
Subject(s) - bayes' theorem , bernoulli trial , bernoulli's principle , estimation , heuristic , mathematics , sequence (biology) , sequential estimation , statistics , bayes estimator , algorithm , computer science , mathematical optimization , bayesian probability , engineering , systems engineering , biology , genetics , aerospace engineering
Let x 1 x 2 , x 3 ,be a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with common success probability p . We consider the problem of estimation of p using a sequential Bayes theoretic approach when the cost per observation is c , and the loss of estimation is squared error loss. A heuristic procedure is suggested, a bound on its Bayes risk is computed, and asymptotic results are exhibited.