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The Effects of Variations in the Components of Change on the Size and Structure of The Australian Population: 1911‐66
Author(s) -
M. ivamxtothy
Publication year - 1971
Publication title -
australian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 0004-9581
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.1971.tb01237.x
Subject(s) - fertility , demography , population , interaction , population size , age groups , total fertility rate , population projection , projections of population growth , geography , statistics , research methodology , mathematics , family planning , sociology
Summary The main aim of the study was to estimate separately the effects of the variations in the components of population change and the effects of their mutual interactions on the size and age structure and other characteristics of the Australian population during 1911‐66. The method proposed, called here the factorial projection method, is to project the population over the period under consideration, under different assumptions according to a 2×2×2 factorial design, utilizing the observed variations in fertility, mortality and migration. It was found that, apart from the effects of variations in the components occurring individually, the two factor interaction effects– the interaction effects of the changes occurring simultaneously in two of the components (viz. fertility and mortality or mortality and migration or fertility and migration)–on the population size, were considerable. The contribution of migration to the working age group was greater than its effect on the total size, and mortality improvement played a more prominent role in increasing the size of the old age population, while the reduction in fertility caused a higher proportion in the old age group and thus increased the mean age of the population both in the case of males and females. The two factor interaction effects were not negligible in changing the size of the school age population, population in the working age group and also in the old age group. But the interaction of migration and the decline in fertility was the only interaction effect which was important in changing the percentage age distribution and the mean age of the male and female population.