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ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis *
Author(s) -
Petri Peter A.,
Plummer Michael G.,
Zhai Fan
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
asian economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.345
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1467-8381
pISSN - 1351-3958
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8381.2012.02079.x
Subject(s) - economics , foreign direct investment , investment (military) , economic integration , trade diversion , international economics , free movement , international trade , single market , capital (architecture) , trade creation , international free trade agreement , politics , macroeconomics , history , archaeology , european union , political science , law
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.