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China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model *
Author(s) -
Zhang Yin,
Wan Guanghua
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
asian economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.345
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1467-8381
pISSN - 1351-3958
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8381.2005.00221.x
Subject(s) - business cycle , economics , investment (military) , deflation , china , demand shock , consumption (sociology) , macroeconomics , monetary economics , supply and demand , supply shock , monetary policy , political science , law , social science , sociology , politics
The present paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework; namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that (i) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (ii) driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–1990, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–1996 and the post‐1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.