Premium
Performance of the Official Composite Leading Index in Monitoring the Singapore Economy
Author(s) -
Chow HweeKwan
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
asian economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.345
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1467-8381
pISSN - 1351-3958
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8381.1993.tb00099.x
Subject(s) - bivariate analysis , index (typography) , composite index , economics , gross domestic product , business cycle , composite indicator , econometrics , economic indicator , series (stratigraphy) , time series , economy , classical economics , macroeconomics , statistics , mathematics , computer science , world wide web , paleontology , biology
This paper attempts to evaluate the performance of an official composite leading index (CLI) which is used for economic forecasting in Singapore. To examine whether the CU or its component leading indicators presage activity over the business cycle, we use bivariate time series techniques. Crossamlation functions are estimated to determine the strength of leadlag relationships between the leading indicators and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The predictive ability of the CLI is also assessed by its contribution towards time series model forewts of the economy.