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Potential futures for road transportation CO 2 emissions in the Asia Pacific
Author(s) -
Marcotullio Peter J.,
Marshall Julian D.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
asia pacific viewpoint
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.571
H-Index - 38
eISSN - 1467-8373
pISSN - 1360-7456
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8373.2007.00353.x
Subject(s) - china , purchasing power parity , asia pacific , futures contract , per capita , geography , economy , economics , population , demography , archaeology , sociology , exchange rate , financial economics , macroeconomics
Will future transportation carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies follow historical trends of the now developed world? Evidence to date is inconclusive. A comparison at similar income levels (purchasing power parity) between recent emissions in Asia Pacific countries and historical emissions in developed countries suggests diverging patterns. (A) High‐income Asia economies (Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore –‘low emitters’) exhibit lower emissions than a selected sample of seven developed countries (United States, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and United Kingdom). (B) Another set of Asian countries (South Korea and Taiwan –‘medium emitters’) follow the emissions trends of European countries, which are lower than those of Australia and the United States. (C) A third Asian group (Malaysia and Thailand –‘high emitters’) exhibit emission trends comparable to that of Australia. We describe these trends, examine their causes and extrapolate likely futures for emissions in low‐income Asia Pacific economies (China, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam). Although such predictions are speculative, the available evidence suggests that road CO 2 emissions for Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam will follow those of the third group (high emitters), while those for China may follow either Group B or Group C.